24 Overrated RBs. But, man, there are all sorts of asterisks to add to that description. Jameis Winston is a downfield passer, and Hill would rather run than check down. Taylor can be a rock-solid option and still be pecked away with Hines and Mack enough to be more in the RB10-15 range. Thurman Thomas 14. Sigmund Bloom: Anthony Lynn basically told us that he will run a committee of Swift and free agent pick Jamaal Williams when he called Williams his "A" back. Gibson is more likely to lose his job than return a significant profit on his draft price. Vegas used other backs last year and pigeonholed Jacobs as a two-down grinder. This should be a fair competition, considering that Miami is changing its scheme this year. Ten different running backs had more targets alone than the entire Ravens backfield in 2020. In five games without Mark Ingram II in 2020, Dobbins only out-carried Gus Edwards 13 to 11.6. Jason Wood: We all want Dobbins to be an every-down workhorse. The problem is it never really felt like we stopped moving Edmonds up the board even after the signing of James Conner. His fantasy value came in catching 59 receptions, which won't happen in Arthur Smith's offense that doesn't throw to the tailbacks much. most overrated running backs of all time. Barkley is a workhorse. Ben Cummins: Robinson was an awesome story in 2020 as he just kept producing while seeing 21.43 opportunities per game (6th most in the league) from Weeks 1-16. Malcolm Brown should play plenty, and this offense isn't likely to be explosive enough to support two running backs in any meaningful way. Adding another trip around the sun and competition from two young, capable running backs is the recipe for the bottom to fall out for Gordon. Sep 20, 2020; Tampa, Florida, USA; Carolina . most overrated running backs of all time. David Montgomery looked the part of a workhorse profile after Cohen left the lineup, and Khalil Herbert is a rookie to watch for upward mobility on the depth chart. The Eagles also resigned Jordan Howard and added Kerryon Johnson to the backfield, exhibiting their lack of trust in Sanders as an every-down back. Edmonds is a great player who offers a ton of talent on the field to help win games, but he will never be the high volume type of player that we are all desperately looking for each year. He made general managers look like geniuses with more than 2,000 total yards and 20 touchdowns in 2016. Durability is atop the list after missing six games last year. Jason Wood: Sanders is talented, and when healthy, was productive under former head coach Doug Pederson. I think this is pretty unfair to call him the most overrated. And even if he played all three downs, the target competition is strong (Davante Adams, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow). Harris stayed an extra year in college to improve his draft capital, and rightfully so, as the 2020 class was filled with elite running back talent. Wait until next year. I feel like most drafting Gordon right now are doing it on name value, but he now has plenty of competition with Javonte Williams and Mike Boone as priority adds this offseason. He has had 9,088 receiving+rushing yards over his career. Brown never stopped earning playing time for the Rams despite the team investing early draft capital at the position. Taysom Hill had nine carries from inside the opponent's five-yard line to Kamara's 15 in 2021 and won't be removed from the Saints' red-zone plans any time soon. I'm out. Gaskin was a revelation versus his cost a year ago but is a buyer beware in 2021. Sigmund Bloom: Johnson was still in line to start after he took a pay cut to stay with the Texans, but then the team added Phillip Lindsay after he and the Broncos parted ways, which embroils Johnson in a frustrating committee backfield in an offense that is likely to be among the league's worst. Jeff Haseley: Clyde Edwards-Helaire has all of the tools and skills to be a successful fantasy back but failing to finish runs in the end zone has slowed his progress. Jordan McNamara: Javonte Williams got a major bump in value in the offseason when Melvin Gordon III was a free agent. Detroit signed Jamaal Williams to take the heavy work and kicked the tires on Todd Gurley before declining his addition. He's playing for his fifth team in seven seasons and has never been an instinctive runner. This is a major factor to any expectation that Robinson is fantasy lineup-relevant without an injury to one of the other options, especially beyond the very early weeks in the season. 1 status. Therefore, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position. It probably comes off as harsh to call Montgomery one of the most overrated running backs of the past decade, but he is. History and time have helped make Perry one of the most overrated defensive players of all time. The new coaching staff is inexperienced (second-youngest in the NFL), the system is unproven, the quarterback is going to gobble up a ton of rushing yards and touchdowns, and the front office has added running back depth aggressively in the offseason. Before his 2020 campaign, McKissic had never rushed for more than 205 yards in a season. Gaskin has an RB2 ceiling, but an RB3 value is a much stronger likelihood than many realize, whether it's Brown or a summer free-agent acquisition like Todd Gurley, Adrian Peterson, or a recent starter a team lets go to make room for an emerging force. If Johnson is the starter, he is probably a value where he is being drafted, but I'm not taking him at his current cost without some reassuring news about his role in the coming weeks. With McKissic back taking over passing down duties and Brian Robinson Jr possibly taking over red zone opportunities, Gibson is being overvalued in fantasy drafts. Should drafters trust the first 25 games of his career where he was a compiler with minimal ceiling or the final six games against bad defenses in 2020? Drafting running backs on the downside of their career, on bad offenses, in a platoon situation, is fraught with peril. 54 touchdowns. Pat Fitzmaurice: The appeal is that he's an inexpensive lead back. J.K. McKissic, Washington | Consensus Rankings RB47 | Consensus Projections RB45. Miami will use a committee as none of the backs on the roster can handle the lead-back role. We've seen J.D. WHO ARE THE MOST OVERRATED FANTASY FOOTBALL RUNNING BACKS? Kevin Coleman: Antonio Gibsons value took a hit this offseason. Drew Davenport: Gordon hasn't been a special player for a while now, and at times last year looked completely ineffective. Some running backs, such as Chris Johnson this year, are a full 2.0 YPC over their offensive lines ADY. It's not entirely his fault. Najee Harris, Pittsburgh | Consensus Rankings RB17 | Consensus Projections RB15. Unfortunately, the odds are stacked against Kamara repeating as the best player in fantasy football. Brown has more power and better acceleration and change-of-direction quickness than Gaskin, who is the better receiver. Leave him there for the next guy to take him. Johnson was once a big name at the running back position and is still getting drafted based on that name and past production. The final reason why Jerome Bettis is the most overrated RB of all time is because of the offensive line he ran behind. We use cookies to personalize content, ads and analyze site traffic. It looked like Williams would consolidate the lead role in the offseason. Jamaal Williams is a fine receiver, route runner, and red-zone back who will limit Swift's upside to a low-end fantasy RB2, at best. Melvin Gordon III, Denver | Consensus Rankings RB29 | Consensus Projections RB28. Ten different running backs had more targets alone than the entire Ravens backfield in 2020. He didnt have a top 5 offensive line, so that eliminates the argument that he was made by the offensive line. Projections, Get The Most Out Of Your Add in the fact that offense is unlikely to provide as many goal-line chances as the other high-end RB1s, and Kamara has plenty of factors going against him. They traded up in the draft to select Javonte Williams and, without the large contract, may have already released the former Charger. Jamal Lewis-- RB, 2000-06 There have been seven running backs who have rushed for 2,000 yards in a season, and Jamal Lewis is by far the least memorable of the bunch. But drafting him as a high-upside No. Links to similar discussions on other positions: 12 Quarterbacks11 Tight Ends28 Wide Receivers25 Running Backs, 10 Quarterbacks12 Tight Ends23 Wide Receivers25 Running Backs, 9 Quarterbacks11 Tight Ends15 Wide Receivers13 Running Backs. Dave Kluge: To close out the 2020 season, Cam Akers saw 21, 29, 15, and 21 carries over his last four games. Dillon a lot, and reports from OTAs have been promising. Chad Parsons: Cohen is coming off an injury, and Damien Williams is a notable veteran addition to the depth chart. Coach Brian Flores comes from New England, where they liked employing a committee, and now they have come out publicly to say this will, in fact, be a committee in Miami. Eric Dickerson 8. Ryan Hester: Short of Taysom Hill (if he wins the job), this whole offense is an avoid for fantasy football right now. He rewarded those believers with an RB18 PPG season. Chris "Beanie" Wells. Zamir White is looking like a capable back and could eat into Jacobs' carries. 1 cornerstone. You wrote in to criticize me immediately following a 4-0 win against Forest where, for the first time all season, Moyes bowed to enormous pressure and played a back 4, told Declan to actually be . Yes, but it doesn't feel like he'll be a top-10 type of running back, even in the Chiefs' potent offense. 1 Tom Brady Thomas Edward Patrick Brady, Jr., is an American football quarterback for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers of the National Football League. Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas | Consensus Rankings RB19 | Consensus Projections RB19. Mike Davis, Atlanta | Consensus Rankings RB24 | Consensus Projections RB23. The new coaching staff is inexperienced (second-youngest in the NFL), the system is unproven, the quarterback will gobble up a ton of rushing yards and touchdowns, and the front office has added running back depth aggressively in the offseason. Chase Edmonds, Arizona | Consensus Rankings RB25 | Consensus Projections RB23. Curtis Martin 11. Matt Waldman: After studying Swift's best weeks in 2020, the Lions' offseason acquisitions, and Coach Lynn's analysis of his backs, I'm less enthusiastic about Swift. The current regime did not select Robinson. Lineup Builder Quick Start, Multi-Lineup These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. Jeff Haseley: Josh McDaniels' history of using multiple running backs in his offense is enough to be concerned about Josh Jacobs not having a full-time role as the lead back for the Raiders. Chad Parsons: Malcolm Brown looks, at a minimum, like a strong 1B option but did get the start and most of the snaps with Tua Tagovailoa with the first team in the initial preseason game. Unless his ADP falls a bit, he's a pass where he's being drafted right now. They did not pick up his fifth-year option and took Zamir White in the fourth round of the NFL Draft. Even the best backs need help, and Harris is less likely to have consistent holes to run through than any of the backs going around him. 31 Unsung Running Backs in NFL History By Paul Ladewski on August 3, 2021 Chris O'Meara / AP Photo Before franchise quarterbacks took pro football hostage, there was something known as franchise running backs. He finally received the workhorse role fantasy players have craved. Combine a true committee situation with a quarterback who racks up 1,000 yards and a handful of scores, and you have a ceiling on Dobbins that won't be unlocked without a rash of injuries. If you look at Bettis total career marks, you will see that he is 5th on the all time rushing yards list and 10th in TDs. However, his footwork and explosiveness in tight spaces allowed him to slip would-be tacklers with consistency. Myles Gaskin, Miami | Consensus Rankings RB24 | Consensus Projections RB22. Ty Johnson has strong athleticism and played over Carter in the first week of the preseason, and La'Mical Perine has a similar profile to Carter. The final reason why Jerome Bettis is the most overrated RB of all time is because of the offensive line he ran behind. That has shown to be largely untrue so far in camp as Williams and Gordon have been splitting first-team reps nearly 50-50 until Gordon has missed time with a foot injury. Emmitt Smith 4. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was used as a space player last year, and his lack of a red-zone presence placed a ceiling on his fantasy value. Links to similar discussions on other positions: The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. Think about that for a moment. If you're optimistic about the Lions running game, take Williams at a deep discount from Swift's highly aspirational price tag. In Week 16 of the 2011 season, Adrian Peterson tore his ACL and returned as the #1 overall running back in 2012. Green Bay seems to like A.J. The 2021 season will either change from the norm of what we have seen from Edmonds in the past or a new role where he flourishes with an increase in volume. Marshall Faulk 7. Unfortunately, Dobbins is on a team with an elite rushing quarterback in Lamar Jackson, who will always cap Dobbins' upside in total carries and goal-line looks. They traded up in the draft to select Javonte Williams and, without the large contract, may have already released the former Charger. NFL's 5 Most Overrated Running Backs No Name August 6, 2011 Over the past decade, the NFL has really evolved into a passing league. Sigmund Bloom: The Raiders are going to adopt a frustrating Patriots-style committee at running back under Josh McDaniels, which means that Jacobs will be at best Damien Harris in this offense. Tarik Cohen, Chicago | Consensus Rankings RB49 | Consensus Projections RB47. Jeff Haseley: Chase Edmonds scored in five different games in 2020, exceeding eight carries in a game only twice in 15 qualifying games. Ryan Hester: Even before he played double-digit snaps in the most meaningless of all meaningless preseason games, Jacobs was a solid fade. Search my work, about me, and maybe -if I ever get around to it - my blog. The Raiders have a lot of diverse depth with several different pass catchers, speed backs, and bruisers at the running back position for Jacobs to be drafted at his current ADP. Jalen Hurts will inevitably take away carries and goal-line rushes from the backfield, capping any true remaining upside Sanders may have been clinging to. There are plenty of clarified RB1 types later in the draft to avoid taking the variable shot on Williams. I am a heretic in that regard. There's too much risk to draft him as an ever-week starter. His current draft price is almost his upside. Chad Parsons: Travis Etienne and Carlos Hyde were both chosen additions by the new Jaguars regime with either Round 1 pedigree (Etienne) or a productive NFL profile (Hyde). Fred Taylor "Matthew Berry, ESPN. Footballguys staff members discuss running backs who are overvalued. But even if he doesnt, this backfield could be a closer split than many think. His current draft price is almost his upside. Andy Hicks: Austin Ekeler isnt going to rush anyone to a fantasy title. I can't see Mostert getting enough work to justify his current ADP. But when we look closer, The Bus only averages 1,050 rushing yards per year and 7 touchdowns, far from elite stats. Overrated Sleepers Running Backs Values Overrated Sleepers The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. Optimizer Quick Start, Percent Rostered And ultimately, he was targeted by Miami ahead of an early-round draft pick when he finally hit unrestricted free agency. Williams is extremely talented, but as of now, it looks like this will be a split backfield. He showed elite promise in his rookie year and followed it up with a top 10 season despite a high ankle sprain limiting his ascension. David Montgomery, Chicago | Consensus Rankings RB18 | Consensus Projections RB18. Jeff Haseley: The Dolphins have a three-headed approach to the running back position this year. Now, if the right-back fully lived up to his potential, then he could have been a Man City great. Single The notorious "Frankenstein" graphic did him no favors. "The Philadelphia Story," on the other hand, was a comedy, a genre not often seen as Best Picture worthy. The only other way for one of them to achieve high-end RB1 value would be an injury that allows the other to see an increased workload. Had more rushing touchdowns last year than Williams. That role may not disappear completely, but the addition of Gio Bernard is a bad sign for Tampa Bay's intentions with Fournette. "Footballguys is the best premiumfantasy football By the season's end, Mike Davis will be a case of "I knew it," but the guy who pushes him down or out is pure guesswork at this stage. It is also quite possible that Gordon isn't even on the team by the time Week 1 rolls around. His value is trending in the wrong direction. Deion Sanders tops the list of overrated cornerbacks. Gordon caught only 32 passes last year, and outside of three games where he scored two touchdowns, he was a mediocre fantasy back. Saquon Barkley, NY Giants | Consensus Rankings RB8 | Consensus Projections RB10. Gaskin is an easy fade at his current price. In college, he played wide receiver as much as (if not more than) running back. The coaching staff did not ignore this, as they selected the best pass-catching running back in the fifth round of the NFL Draft in Kenneth Gainwell. Williams can still be a great producer, but at his ADP, I won't be drafting him when he isn't getting the bulk of the touches. Drafters are still grabbing David Johnson due to projected volume, yet in their first preseason game, Houston utilized Phillip Lindsay on first and second downs with the starters while David Johnson was restricted to a third-down role. 5. Pat Fitzmaurice: This is the type of player I won't draft at any cost. However, with Smith out of town, gunslinger Ryan Fitzpatrick now under center, and sophomore running back Antonio Gibson expected to step up, McKissic isnt someone that will have much value in most fantasy leagues. He had the second-worst catch rate in the league last year among running backs, catching only 56% of his targets and dropping eight passes along the way (tied for most with Ezekiel Elliot). Jonathan Morris: As soon as Josh McDaniels came into the picture as the new head coach of the Raiders, my valuation of Jacobs immediately went down. Victoria Geary: The Ravens have "made it a point of emphasis" to get Dobbins more looks in the passing game for 2021, but we know coach speak isn't very trustworthy during the offseason. Before McKissic was injured with a concussion in Week 12, which forced him to miss the remainder of the season, Gibson was only getting targeted 2.6 times per game. Only he and Jim brown had a full career average of 5.0 ypc lifetime. Sigmund Bloom: Swift is surely more likely than Jamaal Williams to be the hot hand in the Detroit backfield, but Swift's ADP is too high for any back that has to rely on the hot hand approach to get the majority of the volume in the backfield. Barring an injury to Chubb, Hunt will drive you crazy trying to figure out when to start him as anything other than a flex option. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look . This is exactly what the Steelers tried to do by selecting Najee Harris in the first round in the NFL Draft. James Robinson, Jacksonville | Consensus Rankings RB29 | Consensus Projections RB30. And the Titans got worse this offseason, losing wide receiver Corey Davis, tight end Jonnu Smith, cornerback Adoree' Jackson, and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. He and Ameer Abdullah -- who played over Kenyan Drake in the first preseason game -- could take away tons of receiving work, while White is capable of obtaining shots around the goal line. At present, I'm avoiding Gaskin because I do not trust the role, especially ahead of projected starters like Mike Davis and other players with higher upside like Travis Etienne. Heading into this season, their offensive line is mediocre, their quarterback situation is a mess, they have a new coach, and the rest of the skill position players are uninspiring. D'Andre Swift, Detroit | Consensus Rankings RB14 | Consensus Projections RB10. Nick Chubb, Cleveland | Consensus Rankings RB10 | Consensus Projections RB11. He feasted on unsustainable opportunities and a soft schedule. James is the more physically gifted player. Gaskin may be the top option for now, but that could change with a strong outing from veteran Malcolm Brown or Salvon Ahmed. Though volume is important in fantasy football, Harris could struggle behind his offensive line and not garner an elite share of red zone touches. There have been personnel changes and a change in offensive coordinator to Matt Canada. Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay | Consensus Rankings RB33 | Consensus Projections RB31. It seems the case that he is being drafted well above his upside. Awesemo fantasy expert Nick Lepri gives you the three MOST OVERRATED RBs, breaks down his running .. Drafting Jacobs around this price is drafting him at his ceiling -- perhaps even above it.